Rocket Richard Trophy Tracker 2026-27
No Rocket Richard Trophy outcome on Polymarket has a real two-sided price right now (as of Oct 21, 2026), so the table below is the stat race, with the listed asks for reference.
The favourites
| # | Player | G | GP | Pace | Ask | Bid | Fair | 7d ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Clayton KellerUTA · R | 4 | 10 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 2 |  Elias PetterssonVAN · C | 3 | 10 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 3 |  Kirill MarchenkoTOR · R | 4 | 10 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 4 |  Jared McCannSEA · L | 3 | 9 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 5 |  Kyle ConnorWPG · L | 8 | 8 | 84 | 74¢ | 0.6¢ | thin | – |
| 6 |  J.T. MillerNYR · C | 2 | 11 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
Market: NHL Maurice 'Rocket' Richard Trophy Winner, 81 listed outcomes, 0 with a real two-sided book (bid and ask within 5 cents and within half their midpoint). Fair % is the midpoint of those books; thin outcomes show no fair %.
The full Rocket Richard Trophy race
The top market outcomes plus every stat leader, priced or not.
| # | Player | G | GP | Pace | Ask | Bid | Fair | 7d ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton KellerUTA · R | 4 | 10 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 2 | Elias PetterssonVAN · C | 3 | 10 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 3 | Kirill MarchenkoTOR · R | 4 | 10 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 4 | Jared McCannSEA · L | 3 | 9 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 5 | Kyle ConnorWPG · L | 8 | 8 | 84 | 74¢ | 0.6¢ | thin | – |
| 6 | J.T. MillerNYR · C | 2 | 11 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 7 |  Jesper BrattNJD · L | 2 | 8 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 8 |  John TavaresTOR · C | 2 | 7 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 9 |  Carter VerhaegheFLA · C | 6 | 9 | 56 | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 10 |  Bryan RustPIT · R | 3 | 7 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 11 |  Juraj SlafkovskýMTL · L | 1 | 8 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 12 |  Adam FantilliCBJ · C | 2 | 7 | – | 74¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 13 |  Auston MatthewsTOR · C | 7 | 10 | 59 | 73.9¢ | 1¢ | thin | – |
| 14 |  Brandon HagelTBL · L | 6 | 8 | 63 | 73.9¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 15 |  Leon DraisaitlEDM · C | 6 | 8 | 63 | 73.9¢ | 0.2¢ | thin | – |
| 16 |  Kirill KaprizovMIN · L | 10 | 9 | 93 | 69¢ | 0.2¢ | thin | – |
| 17 |  Connor McDavidEDM · C | 6 | 8 | 63 | 66.9¢ | 0.3¢ | thin | – |
| 18 |  Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C | 6 | 9 | 56 | 66.9¢ | 0.5¢ | thin | – |
| 19 |  Mark StoneVGK · R | 7 | 10 | 59 | 5¢ | 0.1¢ | thin | – |
| 20 |  Alexis LafrenièreNYR · L | 7 | 11 | 53 | – | – | – | – |
| 21 |  Nick SchmaltzUTA · C | 7 | 10 | 59 | – | – | – | – |
| 22 |  Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R | 7 | 8 | 74 | – | – | – | – |
| 23 |  Artturi LehkonenCOL · L | 6 | 9 | 56 | – | – | – | – |
| 24 |  Evan BouchardEDM · D | 6 | 8 | 63 | – | – | – | – |
| 25 |  Mark JankowskiCAR · L | 6 | 9 | 56 | – | – | – | – |
How much do early stats tell you?
Little, this early. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days into the season won the Art Ross 3 times (the eventual winner ranked 43, 152, 1, 1, 1, 2, 5, 8, 25 at that point), and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time. Nine seasons is a small sample, so treat this as a warning, not a model.
Market comparison: we have no forecast that beats these prices, and we do not claim an edge. The market already prices player talent and role; a stat leader with a low price is usually a hot start the market expects to cool. Testing a model against award futures would need several seasons of stored prices; we started storing daily snapshots in October 2026.
Recent Rocket Richard Trophy winners
| Season | Winner | GP | G | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 |  Nathan MacKinnonCOL | 80 | 53 | 127 |
| 2024-25 |  Leon DraisaitlEDM | 71 | 52 | 106 |
| 2023-24 |  Auston MatthewsTOR | 81 | 69 | 107 |
| 2022-23 |  Connor McDavidEDM | 82 | 64 | 153 |
| 2021-22 | Auston MatthewsTOR | 73 | 60 | 106 |
| 2020-21 | Auston MatthewsTOR | 52 | 41 | 66 |
| 2019-20 |  Alex OvechkinWSH | 68 | 48 | 67 |
| 2019-20 |  David PastrnakBOS | 70 | 48 | 95 |
Reading the Rocket Richard Trophy odds
The prices are Polymarket's: the best ask is what one share of "Yes" costs, paying $1 if the player wins. Most of the 100-plus listed outcomes are thin (no bid, or a bid and ask more than 5 cents or half their midpoint apart), so their ask is not a real price. Our "fair" column uses only the 0 outcomes with a real two-sided book: the midpoint between bid and ask, scaled down if those midpoints add up to more than 100%, which is the margin. Thin outcomes show no fair price.
Awards are decided over a full season, so early stat leaders matter less than you would think. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days in won the Art Ross 3 times, and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time.
We publish the race and the prices side by side, but we do not have a model that beats these markets, so there is no pick here. Polymarket's taker fee (0.05 × p × (1 − p) per share) comes on top of the ask.
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Who could hit a milestone tonight, and who is close
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Every hat trick this season and the leaders since 2017-18
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Rookie leaders, points pace and the Calder race
- All-time records
Every official NHL record list
- Head to head
All-time records between any two teams
Frequently asked questions
Who leads the Rocket Richard Trophy race on stats?
Kirill Kaprizov leads the stat race with 10 goals.
Who won the Rocket Richard Trophy last season?
Nathan MacKinnon won the Rocket Richard Trophy in 2025-26.
Do the early leaders usually win?
Not often. Over the last 9 seasons the points leader 14 days in won the Art Ross 3 times and the early goals leader won the Rocket Richard 1 time.