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Who to start · 2025-26

Auston Matthews vs Mikhail Sergachev

Auston MatthewsAuston MatthewsMaple Leafs · CentrevsMikhail SergachevMikhail SergachevMammoth · Defence

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikhail Sergachev's 2.15.

Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Sergachev had 59 in 78 games.

This week Matthews has 1 game left; Sergachev has 2 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Sergachev for 3.0 ESPN points to Matthews's 2.7.

Mikhail Sergachev has the better number in 23 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Matthews's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1016, Transition attempts /60 2.09, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%.

Sergachev's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.0, Top skating speed 23.8, Luck Meter +21.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Auston Matthews

2.31

fantasy points per game

Mikhail Sergachev

2.15

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMatthewsSergachev
Goals (+2)0.790.24
Assists (+1)0.380.65
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.16
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.360.21
Hits (+0.1)0.070.06
Blocks (+0.5)0.630.81

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head

Auston Matthews and Mikhail Sergachev have no head-to-head events in our data yet (regular season and playoffs since 2019-20).

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MatthewsSergachev

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Auston Matthews

3games (1 left)

2.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 13th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 pts
    Likely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)

Mikhail Sergachev

3games (2 left)

3.0proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 vs CHI
    Opp allows 4th-most FP to DLikely vs Arvid Soderblom (.880)
  • Sat, Oct 3 @ CBJ1.5 pts
    Opp allows 8th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Jet Greaves (.908)
  • Sun, Oct 4 @ NYRB2B1.5 pts
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Auston Matthews or Mikhail Sergachev in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mikhail Sergachev's 2.15. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Sergachev had 59 in 78 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Auston Matthews or Mikhail Sergachev?
On 2025-26 numbers, Mikhail Sergachev leads in 23 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →