Expected goals (xGF%): NHL team rankings
5-on-5 · 2025-26 regular season · xGF%
Share of 5-on-5 expected goals: shot volume weighted by shot quality.
In 2025-26, the Colorado Avalanche rank 1st in xGF% (5-on-5) at 57.8%, the best mark in the NHL. The Vancouver Canucks sit 32nd at 42.7%. The league average is 50.0%.
All 32 teams by xGF%
Highest first. Each team links to xGF% on its own stats page.
| Rk | Team | Gap to league average | xGF% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Colorado AvalancheCOL | 57.8% | |
| 2 |  Ottawa SenatorsOTT | 55.8% | |
| 3 |  Carolina HurricanesCAR | 55.6% | |
| 4 |  Vegas Golden KnightsVGK | 55.3% | |
| 5 |  Tampa Bay LightningTBL | 54.3% | |
| 6 |  Utah MammothUTA | 53.0% | |
| 7 |  Dallas StarsDAL | 52.1% | |
| 8 |  Philadelphia FlyersPHI | 52.0% | |
| 9 |  Columbus Blue JacketsCBJ | 51.5% | |
| 10 |  Los Angeles KingsLAK | 51.4% | |
| 11 |  Edmonton OilersEDM | 51.2% | |
| 12 |  Anaheim DucksANA | 51.2% | |
| 13 |  Pittsburgh PenguinsPIT | 51.2% | |
| 14 |  Buffalo SabresBUF | 51.0% | |
| 15 |  Minnesota WildMIN | 50.9% | |
| 16 |  St. Louis BluesSTL | 50.7% | |
| 17 |  Florida PanthersFLA | 50.2% | |
| 18 |  Montreal CanadiensMTL | 50.1% | |
| 19 |  Washington CapitalsWSH | 50.1% | |
| 20 |  Boston BruinsBOS | 49.0% | |
| 21 |  New Jersey DevilsNJD | 48.6% | |
| 22 |  Winnipeg JetsWPG | 47.7% | |
| 23 |  New York IslandersNYI | 47.5% | |
| 24 |  Detroit Red WingsDET | 47.5% | |
| 25 |  New York RangersNYR | 47.4% | |
| 26 |  Nashville PredatorsNSH | 47.3% | |
| 27 |  San Jose SharksSJS | 46.7% | |
| 28 |  Seattle KrakenSEA | 45.9% | |
| 29 |  Calgary FlamesCGY | 45.8% | |
| 30 |  Toronto Maple LeafsTOR | 45.3% | |
| 31 |  Chicago BlackhawksCHI | 43.6% | |
| 32 |  Vancouver CanucksVAN | 42.7% |
- Above league average
- Below
Top skaters: Expected goals (xGF%)
Team xGF% leaderboard →Share of 5-on-5 expected goals while he is on the ice. 2025-26 regular season, qualified skaters only. Each name links to the stat on his player page.
How we calculate team xGF%
Each unblocked attempt gets a goal probability from our own xG model (distance, angle, shot type, rebounds, rush, game state). We sum the team's xG for and against at 5-on-5 and take the share.
Why it matters for fantasy hockey
xGF% is the best single read on whether a team's scoring is sustainable. Skaters on high-xGF% teams keep producing; skaters on teams scoring well above their xG are due to cool off.
How to read it
50% is even. Teams above 53% usually finish in playoff spots. If actual GF% is far above xGF%, finishing or goaltending is carrying the team.
Limitations
Our model does not see pre-shot passes or screens directly, so teams that create cross-ice one-timers are slightly undervalued. Values before the season's xG reprocess may be missing.
Go deeper
On each team's pages, xGF% also appears in the Team on-ice by strength section, linked from its row in Team analytics.
More possession & shot quality stats
- Corsi (CF%)Share of all 5-on-5 shot attempts (goals, saves, misses, blocks) taken by the team.
- Fenwick (FF%)Share of unblocked 5-on-5 shot attempts: Corsi without the blocked shots.
- Sequence xG (sxGF%)Expected goals adjusted for flurries, so one scramble cannot count as three goals.
- High-danger chances (HDCF%)Share of 5-on-5 high-danger chances: mostly net-front attempts, plus rush and rebound chances from the wider slot.
- Scoring chances (SCF%)Share of 5-on-5 scoring chances: attempts worth 2 or more points on the zone scale.
FAQ
- Which NHL team ranks first in xGF% in 2025-26?
- The Colorado Avalanche rank 1st with the highest xGF% in the NHL, 57.8%. The top three: Colorado Avalanche (57.8%), Ottawa Senators (55.8%), Carolina Hurricanes (55.6%).
- What does xGF% mean in hockey?
- Expected goals for percentage: the team's share of the expected goals created by both teams, where each shot is weighted by its chance of scoring.
- Is xGF% better than Corsi?
- For predicting future goals, usually yes: it keeps Corsi's large sample but weights each attempt by quality, so a slot chance counts more than a point shot.
Ranks are among the 32 current teams; 1st is the highest value. Regular season only, updated through the latest processed games.