Who to start · 2025-26
Auston Matthews vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Matthews has 1 game left; Cates has 1 left. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Cates's 1.0.
Auston Matthews has the better number in 20 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Matthews's biggest edges: Faceoff win % 59.7%, Draw Equity /100 +0.103, Transition attempts /60 2.09.
Cates's biggest edges: Luck Meter +18, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Plus/minus +26.
Head to head on the dot, Matthews leads Cates 26–17.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Auston Matthews
2.31
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.
| Points per game from | Matthews | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.79 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.63 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Matthews vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matthews 9G 9A, 52 SOG · Cates 1G 4A, 18 SOG
Matthews's offensive zone 11–5 · neutral 10–5 · Matthews's defensive zone 5–7 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
Matthews blocked 0 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 3 of Matthews's.
On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)
10:30 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–8
- 52.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.6
- 38.3%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matthews | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | TOR 2–3 PHI | 0G 0A 8S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2026-01-08 | TOR 2–1 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-01 | TOR 5–2 PHI | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7–2 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-07 | TOR 3–2 PHI | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-01-05 | TOR 3–2 PHI | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2024-03-19 | TOR 3–4 PHI | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-03-14 | TOR 6–2 PHI | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-02-15 | TOR 4–3 PHI | 3G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-01-08 | TOR 6–2 PHI | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-12-22 | TOR 4–3 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-02 | TOR 5–2 PHI | 1G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Auston Matthews
3games (1 left)
2.7proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 12th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 13th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 ptsLikely vs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.0proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 8th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.0 ptsOpp allows 12th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge +12.2 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Auston Matthews or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Auston Matthews or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Auston Matthews leads in 20 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Matthews and Cates done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 11–2. Matthews had 18 points (9 goals) and Cates had 5 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or Cates?
- Against each other, Matthews has won 26 and Cates 17 of their 43 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →