Who to start · 2025-26
Brady Tkachuk vs Bryan Rust
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brady Tkachuk's 2.16.
Tkachuk had 59 points in 60 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games.
This week Tkachuk has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Rust has 1 left. We project Tkachuk for 2.3 ESPN points to Rust's 2.2.
Brady Tkachuk has the better number in 18 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Tkachuk's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.80, Expected goals 61.0%, Sequence xG 61.0%.
Rust's biggest edges: Blocked shots 71, Goals above expected +1.5, On-ice PDO 1019.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 5 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brady Tkachuk
2.32
fantasy points per game
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brady Tkachuk has the edge.
| Points per game from | Tkachuk | Rust |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.27 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.16 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Tkachuk vs Rust
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2018-19 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Tkachuk 9G 8A, 66 SOG · Rust 6G 9A, 57 SOG
Tkachuk blocked 0 of Rust's shots; Rust blocked 2 of Tkachuk's.
On the ice against each other (Tkachuk's side)
10:40 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Tkachuk's side
- Shot attempts
- 10–9
- 52.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.1
- 81.0%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Tkachuk | Rust |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | OTT 3–4 PIT | 0G 1A 4S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2025-12-18 | OTT 4–0 PIT | 2G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-30 | OTT 0–1 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2025-01-11 | OTT 5–0 PIT | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-14 | OTT 3–2 PIT | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-12 | OTT 2–1 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2023-10-28 | OTT 5–2 PIT | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 7S |
| 2023-03-20 | OTT 2–1 PIT | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 6S |
| 2023-01-20 | OTT 1–4 PIT | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-01-18 | OTT 5–4 PIT | 1G 3A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-01-20 | OTT 4–6 PIT | 0G 2A 9S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2022-02-10 | OTT 0–2 PIT | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 5S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brady Tkachuk
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ CAROpp allows 9th-most FP to LWLikely vs Brandon Bussi (.895)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ SJSOpp allows 15th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −1.0 win%Likely vs Yaroslav Askarov (.884)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ ANA2.3 ptsOpp allows 8th-most FP to LWLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brady Tkachuk or Bryan Rust in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brady Tkachuk's 2.16. Tkachuk had 59 points in 60 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brady Tkachuk or Bryan Rust?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brady Tkachuk leads in 18 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Tkachuk and Rust done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Tkachuk's team went 10–8. Tkachuk had 17 points (9 goals) and Rust had 15 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →