Who to start · 2025-26
Brent Burns vs Leo Carlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38.
Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games.
This week Burns has 1 game left; Carlsson has 1 left. We project Carlsson for 2.0 ESPN points to Burns's 1.4.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 24 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Burns's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.38, On-ice PDO 1021, Transition attempts /60 0.90.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Offensive-zone start % 65.8%, 20+ mph bursts 197, Ascension score 59.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brent Burns
1.38
fantasy points per game
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Burns | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.27 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.55 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Burns vs Carlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Burns 0G 2A, 12 SOG · Carlsson 1G 0A, 9 SOG
On the ice against each other (Burns's side)
6:58 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Burns's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–6
- 64.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.4
- 46.2%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Burns | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | COL 5–1 ANA | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-11 | COL 4–1 ANA | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2025-03-23 | CAR 5–2 ANA | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-01-12 | CAR 2–3 ANA | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brent Burns
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.4 pts
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGK
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA2.0 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brent Burns or Leo Carlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38. Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brent Burns or Leo Carlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 24 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Burns and Carlsson done against each other?
- In 4 games against each other in our data, Burns's team went 3–1. Burns had 2 points (0 goals) and Carlsson had 1 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →