Who to start · 2025-26
Brent Burns vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brent Burns projects to 1.38 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Burns has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Cates for 1.5 ESPN points to Burns's 0.9.
They split the 34 stats both are ranked on 17–17.
Burns's biggest edges: Corsi 55.6%, Transition attempts /60 0.90, Goals above expected +4.8.
Cates's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Hits 102, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brent Burns
1.38
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brent Burns has the edge.
| Points per game from | Burns | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Burns vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Burns 2G 5A, 28 SOG · Cates 1G 4A, 9 SOG
Burns blocked 0 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 2 of Burns's.
On the ice against each other (Burns's side)
8:43 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Burns's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–9
- 47.1%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.2
- 41.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Burns | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | COL 3–7 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-07 | COL 3–2 PHI | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-15 | CAR 5–0 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-11-20 | CAR 4–1 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-11-05 | CAR 6–4 PHI | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-21 | CAR 3–2 PHI | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-11-15 | CAR 1–3 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-10-30 | CAR 3–2 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-03-18 | CAR 5–4 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2023-03-09 | CAR 1–0 PHI | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-12-23 | CAR 6–5 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-10-29 | CAR 4–3 PHI | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brent Burns
2games (1 left)
0.9proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 3rd-most FP to DLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL0.9 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brent Burns or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brent Burns projects to 1.38 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brent Burns or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 17–17 across 34 stats where both qualify.
- How have Burns and Cates done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Burns's team went 10–2. Burns had 7 points (2 goals) and Cates had 5 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →