Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Bryan Rust
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brock Nelson's 2.23.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Rust has 1 left. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 17 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 735, Expected goals 60.0%, Sequence xG 59.8%.
Rust's biggest edges: Luck Meter +32, Offensive-zone start % 63.3%, Hardest shot 88.4.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.00
fantasy points per game
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Rust |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.40 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Rust
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 23G 18A, 100 SOG · Rust 12G 8A, 107 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Nelson's defensive zone 1–2 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 0 of Rust's shots; Rust blocked 2 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
5:10 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–4
- 66.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.5–0.2
- 71.9%
- Goals
- 2–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Rust |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | COL 6–2 PIT | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2026-03-16 | COL 2–7 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-12-29 | NYI 2–3 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-12-28 | NYI 6–3 PIT | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-17 | NYI 5–4 PIT | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-02-20 | NYI 5–4 PIT | 1G 1A 8S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-09 | NYI 4–3 PIT | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-20 | NYI 4–2 PIT | 2G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2023-02-17 | NYI 5–4 PIT | 2G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 7S |
| 2022-12-27 | NYI 5–1 PIT | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-04-14 | NYI 3–6 PIT | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-04-12 | NYI 5–4 PIT | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
Latest 12 of 40 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to C
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RW
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RW
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Bryan Rust in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brock Nelson's 2.23. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Bryan Rust?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 17 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Rust done against each other?
- In 40 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 24–16. Nelson had 41 points (23 goals) and Rust had 20 (12 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Rust?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 1 and Rust 2 of their 3 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →