Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Leo Carlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlsson for 1.6 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 21 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.42, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.000, Blocked shots 65.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Ascension score 59, Offensive-zone start % 65.8%, Luck Meter +7.
Head to head on the dot, Nelson leads Carlsson 9–8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Carlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 0G 4A, 14 SOG · Carlsson 2G 1A, 11 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 2–2 · neutral 3–5 · Nelson's defensive zone 4–1 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
4:47 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–4
- 66.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.6–0.2
- 72.7%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | COL 5–1 ANA | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-11-11 | COL 4–1 ANA | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2025-04-13 | COL 4–2 ANA | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-10-29 | NYI 1–3 ANA | 0G 0A 5S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-12-13 | NYI 4–3 ANA | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Leo Carlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Leo Carlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 21 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Carlsson done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 4–1. Nelson had 4 points (0 goals) and Carlsson had 3 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Carlsson?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 9 and Carlsson 8 of their 17 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →