Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Cates for 1.5 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 150, Corsi 57.5%, Fenwick 57.3%.
Cates's biggest edges: Hits 102, Luck Meter +14, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%.
Head to head on the dot, Cates leads Nelson 20–18.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 7G 4A, 26 SOG · Cates 2G 2A, 16 SOG
Nelson's offensive zone 7–4 · neutral 4–12 · Nelson's defensive zone 7–4 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
Nelson blocked 0 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 1 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
9:37 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–7
- 53.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.1
- 73.1%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | COL 3–7 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-12-07 | COL 3–2 PHI | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-01-30 | NYI 3–0 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-24 | NYI 3–1 PHI | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-01-16 | NYI 3–5 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-04-01 | NYI 4–3 PHI | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-25 | NYI 0–1 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-11-22 | NYI 3–2 PHI | 2G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-04-08 | NYI 4–0 PHI | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-06 | NYI 2–1 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-29 | NYI 1–3 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2022-11-26 | NYI 5–2 PHI | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Cates done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 8–4. Nelson had 11 points (7 goals) and Cates had 4 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Nelson or Cates?
- Against each other, Nelson has won 18 and Cates 20 of their 38 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →