Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Connor McDavid
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Bryan Rust's 2.28.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; McDavid had 138 in 82 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; McDavid has 1 left. We project McDavid for 2.8 ESPN points to Rust's 1.9.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 27 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Hardest shot 88.4, Blocked shots 71, On-ice PDO 1019.
McDavid's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 2.12, Faceoffs won 457, Expected goals 56.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Connor McDavid
3.21
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | McDavid |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 1.17 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs McDavid
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 4G 6A, 37 SOG · McDavid 8G 16A, 57 SOG
Rust's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–1 · Rust's defensive zone 0–0 (2017-18)
Rust blocked 0 of McDavid's shots; McDavid blocked 3 of Rust's.
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
12:50 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 5–22
- 18.5%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–1.2
- 4.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | McDavid |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | PIT 6–2 EDM | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-16 | PIT 4–6 EDM | 1G 0A 6S | 2G 2A 6S |
| 2025-01-09 | PIT 5–3 EDM | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 3A 3S |
| 2024-10-25 | PIT 0–4 EDM | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-03-10 | PIT 0–4 EDM | 0G 0A 6S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2023-02-23 | PIT 2–7 EDM | 0G 1A 1S | 2G 2A 7S |
| 2022-10-24 | PIT 3–6 EDM | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-04-26 | PIT 1–5 EDM | 0G 0A 6S | 1G 3A 4S |
| 2019-12-20 | PIT 5–2 EDM | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-11-02 | PIT 1–2 EDM | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-02-13 | PIT 3–1 EDM | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2018-10-23 | PIT 6–5 EDM | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 8S |
Latest 12 of 14 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHI
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.9 pts
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.8proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VAN
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VAN
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.8 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Connor McDavid in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Bryan Rust's 2.28. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; McDavid had 138 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Connor McDavid?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 27 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and McDavid done against each other?
- In 14 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 7–7. Rust had 10 points (4 goals) and McDavid had 24 (8 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Rust or McDavid?
- Against each other, Rust has won 0 and McDavid 1 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →