Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Bryan Rust has the better number in 22 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 124, Hardest shot 88.4, Offensive-zone time 44.6%.
Cates's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 467, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Expected goals 53.9%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.45
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.44 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.31 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 7G 7A, 44 SOG · Cates 7G 8A, 29 SOG
Rust's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Rust's defensive zone 1–0 (2025-26)
Rust blocked 1 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 1 of Rust's.
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
39:56 at 5-on-5 over 9 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 45–32
- 58.4%
- Expected goals
- 1.7–1.9
- 47.9%
- Goals
- 1–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 · PO | PIT 0–1 PHI | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-04-27 · PO | PIT 3–2 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-04-25 · PO | PIT 4–2 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-04-22 · PO | PIT 2–5 PHI | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2026-04-20 · PO | PIT 0–3 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-04-18 · PO | PIT 2–3 PHI | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-03-07 | PIT 3–4 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2026-01-15 | PIT 6–3 PHI | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-12-01 | PIT 5–1 PHI | 1G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-10-28 | PIT 2–3 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-02-27 | PIT 5–4 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-02-25 | PIT 1–6 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 2G 1A 3S |
Latest 12 of 18 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +12.9 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Bryan Rust leads in 22 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Cates done against each other?
- In 18 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 10–8. Rust had 14 points (7 goals) and Cates had 15 (7 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Rust or Cates?
- Against each other, Rust has won 1 and Cates 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →