Who to start · 2025-26
Bryan Rust vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Rust has 1 game left; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Bryan Rust has the better number in 23 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Rust's biggest edges: Top skating speed 22.8, 20+ mph bursts 124, Goals above expected +1.5.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.64, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Faceoffs won 6.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.43
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Rust | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.81 | 0.48 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.49 | 0.20 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Rust vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Rust 7G 8A, 36 SOG · Toffoli 6G 4A, 41 SOG
On the ice against each other (Rust's side)
11:46 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Rust's side
- Shot attempts
- 9–17
- 34.6%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.7
- 37.4%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Rust | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | PIT 5–6 SJS | 1G 2A 3S | 2G 2A 5S |
| 2025-10-18 | PIT 3–0 SJS | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-01-27 | PIT 1–2 SJS | 0G 1A 6S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2024-11-16 | PIT 4–3 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 2G 0A 5S |
| 2023-11-16 | PIT 2–5 NJD | 2G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-23 | PIT 2–1 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-10-25 | PIT 1–4 CGY | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2021-11-18 | PIT 6–0 MTL | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2019-12-14 | PIT 5–4 LAK | 2G 1A 6S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2019-01-12 | PIT 2–5 LAK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2018-12-15 | PIT 4–3 LAK | 1G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2018-02-15 | PIT 3–1 LAK | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 12th-most FP to RWvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Bryan Rust or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Rust had 65 points in 72 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Bryan Rust or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Bryan Rust leads in 23 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Rust and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 12 games against each other in our data, Rust's team went 7–5. Rust had 15 points (7 goals) and Toffoli had 10 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →