Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Leo Carlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Carlsson's 1.6.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 30 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.36, Transition attempts /60 2.12, Top skating speed 24.6.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 85.5, Goals above expected +1.4, Fenwick 56.3%.
Head to head on the dot, McDavid leads Carlsson 15–11.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Carlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 5G 16A, 45 SOG · Carlsson 5G 10A, 42 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 2–2 · neutral 7–3 · McDavid's defensive zone 6–6 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
40:02 at 5-on-5 over 8 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 40–58
- 40.8%
- Expected goals
- 2.0–2.7
- 42.7%
- Goals
- 2–5
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Carlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 · PO | EDM 2–5 ANA | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 2A 2S |
| 2026-04-28 · PO | EDM 4–1 ANA | 0G 2A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-04-26 · PO | EDM 3–4 ANA | 0G 2A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2026-04-24 · PO | EDM 4–7 ANA | 1G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2026-04-22 · PO | EDM 4–6 ANA | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2026-04-20 · PO | EDM 4–3 ANA | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 1A 10S |
| 2026-03-28 | EDM 4–2 ANA | 1G 2A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-02-25 | EDM 5–6 ANA | 0G 2A 2S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2025-03-04 | EDM 2–6 ANA | 1G 1A 5S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-03 | EDM 3–2 ANA | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2024-12-29 | EDM 3–5 ANA | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-03-30 | EDM 6–1 ANA | 2G 1A 7S | 0G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Leo Carlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Leo Carlsson's 2.12. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Carlsson had 67 in 70 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Leo Carlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 30 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Carlsson done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 6–7. McDavid had 21 points (5 goals) and Carlsson had 15 (5 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Carlsson?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 15 and Carlsson 11 of their 26 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →