Who to start · 2025-26
Connor McDavid vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week McDavid has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project McDavid for 2.3 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Connor McDavid has the better number in 27 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
McDavid's biggest edges: Ascension score 62, 20+ mph bursts 681, Net penalties drawn /60 +1.05.
Cates's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Hits 102, On-ice PDO 1026.
Head to head on the dot, McDavid leads Cates 17–12.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 2 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Connor McDavid
3.45
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Connor McDavid has the edge.
| Points per game from | McDavid | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 1.15 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 1.32 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.35 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.35 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: McDavid vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
McDavid 3G 5A, 23 SOG · Cates 1G 0A, 7 SOG
McDavid's offensive zone 4–4 · neutral 11–5 · McDavid's defensive zone 2–3 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
On the ice against each other (McDavid's side)
9:04 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from McDavid's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–6
- 64.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.3
- 49.5%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | McDavid | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | EDM 2–5 PHI | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-12 | EDM 2–1 PHI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-02-22 | EDM 3–6 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-10-19 | EDM 1–4 PHI | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-21 | EDM 4–2 PHI | 2G 1A 9S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2023-02-09 | EDM 1–2 PHI | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Connor McDavid
3games (1 left)
2.3proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ VANOpp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA2.3 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Connor McDavid or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Connor McDavid projects to 3.45 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. McDavid had 138 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Connor McDavid or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Connor McDavid leads in 27 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have McDavid and Cates done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, McDavid's team went 2–4. McDavid had 8 points (3 goals) and Cates had 1 (1 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, McDavid or Cates?
- Against each other, McDavid has won 17 and Cates 12 of their 29 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →