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Who to start · 2025-26

Kirill Marchenko vs Kyle Connor

Kirill MarchenkoKirill MarchenkoMaple Leafs · Right wingvsKyle ConnorKyle ConnorJets · Left wing

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Kyle Connor projects to 2.43 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Kirill Marchenko's 1.92.

Marchenko had 67 points in 76 games; Connor had 92 in 82 games.

This week Marchenko has 1 game left; Connor has 1 left. We project Connor for 2.4 ESPN points to Marchenko's 1.8.

Kirill Marchenko has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Marchenko's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.4, Blocked shots 40, Penalty minutes 32.

Connor's biggest edges: Goals above expected +1.1, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.31, Hardest shot 90.9.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 7 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Kirill Marchenko

1.92

fantasy points per game

Kyle Connor

2.43

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Kyle Connor has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMarchenkoConnor
Goals (+2)0.631.02
Assists (+1)0.520.67
Power-play points (+0.5)0.130.14
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.010.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.290.37
Hits (+0.1)0.110.05
Blocks (+0.5)0.230.17

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Marchenko vs Connor

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

MarchenkoConnor
2Team record in 6 meetings4
3Points in those games8

Marchenko 0G 3A, 11 SOG · Connor 6G 2A, 24 SOG

On the ice against each other (Marchenko's side)

4:47 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Marchenko's side

Shot attempts
3–4
42.9%
Expected goals
0.1–0.3
17.9%
Goals
0–1

Games against each other

Games between Kirill Marchenko and Kyle Connor
DateScoreMarchenkoConnor
2026-04-04CBJ 1–2 WPG0G 1A 0S2G 0A 2S
2025-11-18CBJ 2–5 WPG0G 0A 1S1G 1A 3S
2024-12-08CBJ 4–1 WPG0G 1A 3S1G 0A 5S
2024-11-01CBJ 2–6 WPG0G 1A 1S0G 1A 4S
2024-03-17CBJ 1–6 WPG0G 0A 4S1G 0A 2S
2023-02-16CBJ 3–1 WPG0G 0A 2S1G 0A 8S

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MarchenkoConnor

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Kirill Marchenko

3games (1 left)

1.8proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 12th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 14th-most FP to RWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT1.8 pts
    vs Linus Ullmark (.891)

Kyle Connor

2games (1 left)

2.4proj. ESPN pts

  • Fri, Oct 2 vs BOS
    Opp allows 12th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
  • Sun, Oct 4 @ DET2.4 pts
    Opp allows 13th-most FP to LWLikely vs John Gibson (.901)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Kirill Marchenko or Kyle Connor in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Kyle Connor projects to 2.43 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Kirill Marchenko's 1.92. Marchenko had 67 points in 76 games; Connor had 92 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Kirill Marchenko or Kyle Connor?
On 2025-26 numbers, Kirill Marchenko leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Marchenko and Connor done against each other?
In 6 games against each other in our data, Marchenko's team went 2–4. Marchenko had 3 points (0 goals) and Connor had 8 (6 goals).

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →