Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Carlsson for 1.6 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 24 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Ascension score 59, 20+ mph bursts 197, Corsi 56.2%.
Cates's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Hits 102, On-ice PDO 1026.
Head to head on the dot, Cates leads Carlsson 9–5.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 4G 0A, 14 SOG · Cates 2G 3A, 11 SOG
Carlsson's offensive zone 1–3 · neutral 4–3 · Carlsson's defensive zone 0–3 (2023-24 to 2025-26)
Carlsson blocked 0 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 1 of Carlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
2:47 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 1–1
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.1
- 11.8%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | ANA 2–3 PHI | 1G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2026-01-06 | ANA 2–5 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 2A 2S |
| 2025-01-11 | ANA 0–6 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-28 | ANA 1–3 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2023-11-10 | ANA 3–6 PHI | 3G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-10-28 | ANA 7–4 PHI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PITOpp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BOpp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 24 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Cates done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 1–5. Carlsson had 4 points (4 goals) and Cates had 5 (2 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Cates?
- Against each other, Carlsson has won 5 and Cates 9 of their 14 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →