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Who to start · 2025-26

Leo Carlsson vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Leo CarlssonLeo CarlssonDucks · CentrevsRyan Nugent-HopkinsRyan Nugent-HopkinsOilers · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's 1.70.

Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Nugent-Hopkins had 56 in 72 games.

This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Nugent-Hopkins has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlsson for 1.6 ESPN points to Nugent-Hopkins's 1.1.

Leo Carlsson has the better number in 19 of the 35 stats both are ranked on.

Carlsson's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 197, Fenwick 56.3%, Plus/minus +4.

Nugent-Hopkins's biggest edges: Forecheck xG /60 0.34, Hardest shot 88.5, High-danger chances 54.8%.

Head to head on the dot, Nugent-Hopkins leads Carlsson 8–6.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Leo Carlsson

2.02

fantasy points per game

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

1.70

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromCarlssonNugent-Hopkins
Goals (+2)0.830.56
Assists (+1)0.540.50
Power-play points (+0.5)0.130.20
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.020.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.280.18
Hits (+0.1)0.020.03
Blocks (+0.5)0.210.22

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Nugent-Hopkins

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2023-24 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

CarlssonNugent-Hopkins
8Team record in 14 meetings6
16Points in those games8

Carlsson 5G 11A, 42 SOG · Nugent-Hopkins 4G 4A, 31 SOG

6Faceoffs against each other8

Carlsson's offensive zone 1–2 · neutral 4–3 · Carlsson's defensive zone 1–3 (2024-25 to 2025-26)

0Hits on each other1

On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)

28:55 at 5-on-5 over 8 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side

Shot attempts
39–29
57.4%
Expected goals
1.3–1.6
44.8%
Goals
2–2

Games against each other

Games between Leo Carlsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
DateScoreCarlssonNugent-Hopkins
2026-04-30 · POANA 5–2 EDM1G 2A 2S0G 0A 2S
2026-04-28 · POANA 1–4 EDM0G 0A 4S0G 2A 1S
2026-04-26 · POANA 4–3 EDM0G 1A 4S1G 0A 1S
2026-04-24 · POANA 7–4 EDM1G 1A 4S1G 0A 3S
2026-04-22 · POANA 6–4 EDM0G 0A 4S0G 1A 0S
2026-04-20 · POANA 3–4 EDM1G 1A 10S0G 0A 0S
2026-03-28ANA 2–4 EDM0G 0A 1S0G 0A 4S
2026-02-25ANA 6–5 EDM1G 2A 4S1G 1A 2S
2025-04-07ANA 3–2 EDM0G 1A 0S0G 0A 7S
2025-03-04ANA 6–2 EDM1G 1A 2S0G 0A 2S
2025-01-03ANA 2–3 EDM0G 1A 0S1G 0A 4S
2024-12-29ANA 5–3 EDM0G 0A 3S0G 0A 0S

Latest 12 of 14 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

CarlssonNugent-Hopkins

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Leo Carlsson

2games (1 left)

1.6proj. ESPN pts

  • Fri, Oct 2 @ VGK
    Opp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
  • Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 pts
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

3games (1 left)

1.1proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs VAN
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
  • Thu, Oct 1 @ VAN
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA1.1 pts
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Leo Carlsson or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's 1.70. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Nugent-Hopkins had 56 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins?
On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 19 of 35 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Carlsson and Nugent-Hopkins done against each other?
In 14 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 8–6. Carlsson had 16 points (5 goals) and Nugent-Hopkins had 8 (4 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Carlsson or Nugent-Hopkins?
Against each other, Carlsson has won 6 and Nugent-Hopkins 8 of their 14 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →