Who to start · 2025-26
Leo Carlsson vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Carlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Carlsson for 1.6 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Leo Carlsson has the better number in 25 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Carlsson's biggest edges: Ascension score 59, 20+ mph bursts 197, Fenwick 56.3%.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, On-ice PDO 1006, Transition attempts /60 1.64.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Leo Carlsson
2.12
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Leo Carlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Carlsson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.90 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.57 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Carlsson vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Carlsson 3G 2A, 22 SOG · Toffoli 1G 2A, 10 SOG
Carlsson blocked 1 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of Carlsson's.
On the ice against each other (Carlsson's side)
17:55 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Carlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 23–11
- 67.6%
- Expected goals
- 1.2–0.9
- 58.1%
- Goals
- 0–2
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Carlsson | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | ANA 6–1 SJS | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2026-04-01 | ANA 3–4 SJS | 0G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-12-29 | ANA 4–5 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2025-10-11 | ANA 7–6 SJS | 1G 2A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-04-01 | ANA 4–3 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-22 | ANA 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-12 | ANA 2–0 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Leo Carlsson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ VGKOpp allows 14th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Carter Hart (.891)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs FLA1.6 ptsOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jacob Markstrom (.883)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Leo Carlsson or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Leo Carlsson projects to 2.12 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Carlsson had 67 points in 70 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Leo Carlsson or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Leo Carlsson leads in 25 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Carlsson and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 7 games against each other in our data, Carlsson's team went 5–2. Carlsson had 5 points (3 goals) and Toffoli had 3 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →