Who to start · 2025-26
Matthew Schaefer vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Schaefer projects to 2.02 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Schaefer had 59 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Schaefer has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Schaefer for 2.4 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Matthew Schaefer has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Schaefer's biggest edges: Top skating speed 23.1, 20+ mph bursts 269, Faceoffs won 0.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Hardest shot 89.2, Offensive-zone time 45.2%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Matthew Schaefer
2.02
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Matthew Schaefer has the edge.
| Points per game from | Schaefer | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.67 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Schaefer vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2025-26 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Schaefer 1G 2A, 7 SOG · Toffoli 0G 0A, 3 SOG
On the ice against each other (Schaefer's side)
4:37 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Schaefer's side
- Shot attempts
- 6–1
- 85.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.2
- 45.3%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Schaefer | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | NYI 2–1 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-21 | NYI 4–3 SJS | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Matthew Schaefer
2games (1 left)
2.4proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ TOROpp allows 14th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Anthony Stolarz (.893)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs NJD2.4 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to DLikely vs Jake Allen (.904)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Matthew Schaefer or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Matthew Schaefer projects to 2.02 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Schaefer had 59 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Matthew Schaefer or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Matthew Schaefer leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Schaefer and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 2 games against each other in our data, Schaefer's team went 2–0. Schaefer had 3 points (1 goals) and Toffoli had 0 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →