Who to start · 2025-26
Morgan Frost vs Pavel Buchnevich
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Pavel Buchnevich projects to 1.39 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30.
Frost had 43 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games.
This week Frost has 2 games left with 1 soft and 1 tough matchups; Buchnevich has 2 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Buchnevich for 2.7 ESPN points to Frost's 2.6.
They split the 35 stats both are ranked on 17–17.
Frost's biggest edges: Draw Equity /100 +0.083, Faceoff win % 56.8%, Goals above expected +4.2.
Buchnevich's biggest edges: Hardest shot 88.9, Sequence xG 52.5%, Expected goals 52.5%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 2 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Morgan Frost
1.37
fantasy points per game
Pavel Buchnevich
1.39
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Pavel Buchnevich has the edge.
| Points per game from | Frost | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.54 | 0.49 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Frost vs Buchnevich
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Frost 0G 1A, 14 SOG · Buchnevich 0G 1A, 24 SOG
Frost's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Frost's defensive zone 1–0 (2025-26)
On the ice against each other (Frost's side)
8:05 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Frost's side
- Shot attempts
- 4–6
- 40.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.1–0.2
- 28.5%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Frost | Buchnevich |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | CGY 2–1 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-11-11 | CGY 2–3 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-10-11 | CGY 2–4 STL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2024-10-31 | PHI 2–1 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-03-04 | PHI 1–2 STL | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-01-15 | PHI 4–2 STL | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2022-11-08 | PHI 5–1 STL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-24 | PHI 5–2 STL | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-02-22 | PHI 1–4 STL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2019-12-23 | PHI 5–1 NYR | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 4S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Morgan Frost
3games (2 left)
2.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs SEAOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ VAN1.6 ptsOpp allows 4th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ SEAB2B1.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)
Pavel Buchnevich
2games
2.7proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DAL1.2 ptsvs Jake Oettinger (.899)
- Sat, Oct 3 @ COLB2B1.5 ptsOpp allows 7th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −16.8 win%Likely vs Mackenzie Blackwood (.903)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Morgan Frost or Pavel Buchnevich in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Pavel Buchnevich projects to 1.39 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Morgan Frost's 1.30. Frost had 43 points in 82 games; Buchnevich had 48 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Morgan Frost or Pavel Buchnevich?
- On 2025-26 numbers they split 17–17 across 35 stats where both qualify.
- How have Frost and Buchnevich done against each other?
- In 10 games against each other in our data, Frost's team went 6–4. Frost had 1 points (0 goals) and Buchnevich had 1 (0 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Frost or Buchnevich?
- Against each other, Frost has won 1 and Buchnevich 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →