Who to start · 2025-26
Noah Cates vs Ryan O'Reilly
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Cates had 47 points in 82 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games.
This week Cates has 1 game left; O'Reilly has 1 left. We project O'Reilly for 1.7 ESPN points to Cates's 1.2.
Ryan O'Reilly has the better number in 26 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Cates's biggest edges: Hits 102, Penalty minutes 44, Offensive-zone start % 58.9%.
O'Reilly's biggest edges: Faceoff win % 55.1%, Draw Equity /100 +0.056, Corsi 52.6%.
Head to head on the dot, O'Reilly leads Cates 24–5.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Ryan O'Reilly
1.90
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Ryan O'Reilly has the edge.
| Points per game from | Cates | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.39 | 0.58 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.31 | 0.57 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Cates vs O'Reilly
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Cates 2G 2A, 4 SOG · O'Reilly 3G 0A, 15 SOG
Cates's offensive zone 1–6 · neutral 1–6 · Cates's defensive zone 3–12 (2022-23 to 2025-26)
Cates blocked 0 of O'Reilly's shots; O'Reilly blocked 1 of Cates's.
On the ice against each other (Cates's side)
10:15 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Cates's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–20
- 25.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.7
- 23.5%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Cates | O'Reilly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-06 | PHI 3–1 NSH | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2025-10-30 | PHI 4–1 NSH | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-31 | PHI 2–1 NSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-11-27 | PHI 3–2 NSH | 0G 0A 0S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2022-11-08 | PHI 5–1 STL | 1G 1A 2S | 1G 0A 5S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2BSchedule edge −9.3 win%
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.2 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Ryan O'Reilly
2games (1 left)
1.7proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MIN
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL1.7 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Noah Cates or Ryan O'Reilly in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan O'Reilly projects to 1.90 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Cates had 47 points in 82 games; O'Reilly had 74 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Noah Cates or Ryan O'Reilly?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Ryan O'Reilly leads in 26 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Cates and O'Reilly done against each other?
- In 5 games against each other in our data, Cates's team went 5–0. Cates had 4 points (2 goals) and O'Reilly had 3 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Cates or O'Reilly?
- Against each other, Cates has won 5 and O'Reilly 24 of their 29 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →