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Who to start · 2025-26

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tyler Toffoli

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsRyan Nugent-HopkinsOilers · CentrevsTyler ToffoliTyler ToffoliSharks · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins projects to 1.70 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.

Nugent-Hopkins had 56 points in 72 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.

This week Nugent-Hopkins has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Toffoli for 1.5 ESPN points to Nugent-Hopkins's 1.1.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has the better number in 24 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.

Nugent-Hopkins's biggest edges: Top skating speed 22.8, Goals above expected +2.6, Forecheck xG /60 0.34.

Toffoli's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, On-ice PDO 1006, Transition attempts /60 1.64.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

1.70

fantasy points per game

Tyler Toffoli

1.43

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromNugent-HopkinsToffoli
Goals (+2)0.560.48
Assists (+1)0.500.38
Power-play points (+0.5)0.200.09
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.010.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.180.22
Hits (+0.1)0.030.06
Blocks (+0.5)0.220.20

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Nugent-Hopkins vs Toffoli

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

Nugent-HopkinsToffoli
22Team record in 34 meetings12
28Points in those games17

Nugent-Hopkins 12G 16A, 80 SOG · Toffoli 7G 10A, 74 SOG

1Faceoffs against each other0

Nugent-Hopkins's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Nugent-Hopkins's defensive zone 1–0 (2018-19)

2Shots blocked by the other0

Nugent-Hopkins blocked 2 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of Nugent-Hopkins's.

0Penalties drawn off the other1

On the ice against each other (Nugent-Hopkins's side)

7:03 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Nugent-Hopkins's side

Shot attempts
9–8
52.9%
Expected goals
0.4–0.2
60.8%
Goals
1–1

Games against each other

Games between Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Tyler Toffoli
DateScoreNugent-HopkinsToffoli
2026-04-08EDM 5–2 SJS0G 1A 2S0G 0A 1S
2026-03-17EDM 5–3 SJS1G 0A 3S0G 0A 3S
2026-02-28EDM 4–5 SJS0G 0A 2S0G 1A 2S
2026-01-29EDM 4–3 SJS0G 1A 1S0G 0A 1S
2025-04-16EDM 3–0 SJS0G 0A 2S0G 0A 3S
2025-04-03EDM 3–2 SJS0G 0A 1S1G 0A 4S
2024-12-21EDM 3–2 SJS0G 0A 1S0G 0A 2S
2024-03-26EDM 4–3 WPG1G 1A 5S0G 0A 0S
2023-12-21EDM 6–3 NJD1G 1A 5S0G 0A 5S
2023-12-10EDM 4–1 NJD0G 1A 1S0G 0A 2S
2022-12-27EDM 2–1 CGY0G 0A 2S0G 0A 3S
2022-10-29EDM 3–2 CGY0G 0A 4S0G 0A 3S

Latest 12 of 34 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

Nugent-HopkinsToffoli

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

3games (1 left)

1.1proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs VAN
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
  • Thu, Oct 1 @ VAN
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to CLikely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs SEA1.1 pts
    Opp allows 6th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Joey Daccord (.897)

Tyler Toffoli

2games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 vs FLA
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 pts
    Opp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins projects to 1.70 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Nugent-Hopkins had 56 points in 72 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Tyler Toffoli?
On 2025-26 numbers, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins leads in 24 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Nugent-Hopkins and Toffoli done against each other?
In 34 games against each other in our data, Nugent-Hopkins's team went 22–12. Nugent-Hopkins had 28 points (12 goals) and Toffoli had 17 (7 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Nugent-Hopkins or Toffoli?
Against each other, Nugent-Hopkins has won 1 and Toffoli 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →