Who to start · 2025-26
Steven Stamkos vs Tyler Toffoli
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Steven Stamkos projects to 2.00 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Stamkos had 66 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.
This week Stamkos has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Stamkos for 2.0 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Steven Stamkos has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Stamkos's biggest edges: Penalty minutes 58, Forecheck xG /60 0.43, Goals above expected +5.9.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.64, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.05, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Steven Stamkos
2.00
fantasy points per game
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Steven Stamkos has the edge.
| Points per game from | Stamkos | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.96 | 0.45 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Stamkos vs Toffoli
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Stamkos 13G 9A, 61 SOG · Toffoli 5G 3A, 56 SOG
Stamkos blocked 1 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 0 of Stamkos's.
On the ice against each other (Stamkos's side)
2:27 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Stamkos's side
- Shot attempts
- 3–0
- 100.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.3–0.0
- 100.0%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Stamkos | Toffoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | NSH 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 9S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-04-04 | NSH 6–3 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2025-03-11 | NSH 3–2 SJS | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2025-01-23 | NSH 6–5 SJS | 1G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-02-25 | TBL 4–1 NJD | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-01-27 | TBL 6–3 NJD | 1G 1A 5S | 1G 0A 5S |
| 2024-01-11 | TBL 4–3 NJD | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2023-01-21 | TBL 3–6 CGY | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2022-11-17 | TBL 4–1 CGY | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-03-10 | TBL 1–4 CGY | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2021-07-07 · PO | TBL 1–0 MTL | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2021-07-05 · PO | TBL 2–3 MTL | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 21 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Steven Stamkos
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs MINOpp allows 11th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Jesper Wallstedt (.916)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs DAL2.0 ptsOpp allows 3rd-most FP to CSchedule edge +13.0 win%Likely vs Casey DeSmith (.907)
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Steven Stamkos or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Steven Stamkos projects to 2.00 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Stamkos had 66 points in 82 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Steven Stamkos or Tyler Toffoli?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Steven Stamkos leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Stamkos and Toffoli done against each other?
- In 21 games against each other in our data, Stamkos's team went 17–4. Stamkos had 22 points (13 goals) and Toffoli had 8 (5 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →