Who to start · 2025-26
Tyler Toffoli vs Will Smith
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Will Smith projects to 1.94 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.
Toffoli had 49 points in 79 games; Smith had 59 in 69 games.
This week Toffoli has 1 game left with 1 soft matchup; Smith has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Smith for 1.9 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.
Will Smith has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Toffoli's biggest edges: Blocked shots 31, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004, Hits 48.
Smith's biggest edges: Ascension score 64, Goals above expected +2.0, Plus/minus +1.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 2 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Tyler Toffoli
1.35
fantasy points per game
Will Smith
1.94
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Will Smith has the edge.
| Points per game from | Toffoli | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.45 | 0.90 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.18 | 0.08 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Toffoli vs Smith
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2024-25 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Toffoli blocked 1 of Smith's shots; Smith blocked 1 of Toffoli's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
216:05 at 5-on-5 over 19 games, 2025-26
- Shot attempts
- 186–212
- 46.7%
- Expected goals
- 8.1–10.0
- 44.9%
- Goals
- 18–7
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Tyler Toffoli
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Will Smith
2games (1 left)
1.9proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 vs FLAOpp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.9 ptsOpp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Tyler Toffoli or Will Smith in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Will Smith projects to 1.94 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Toffoli had 49 points in 79 games; Smith had 59 in 69 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Tyler Toffoli or Will Smith?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Will Smith leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →