Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.22.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.0-0.1−3.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.12.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)10.612.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dominic LovettWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)8.08.5+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Xavier RestrepoWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.416.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)4.015.2+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)11.018.0+7.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)15.80.0−15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.413.0+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.89.4+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.62.2−9.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.317.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)15.117.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6)21.320.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)13.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)10.426.9+16.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.71.7−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)9.78.6−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)16.311.1−5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.05.6−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Michael BurtonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.225.6+20.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Raheem MostertRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.21.2−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15DeAndre CarterWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3)16.314.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.60.0−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)9.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)10.32.8−7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)6.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.40.0−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.38.1−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.63.8−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)4.30.0−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Patrick MahomesQB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)17.713.1−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)9.59.6+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.91.2−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.38.9+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nyheim HinesRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)10.121.6+11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DJ MooreWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)10.722.9+12.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)17.811.3−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)12.212.1−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.61.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Olamide ZaccheausWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)7.10.0−7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.018.2+8.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)7.79.3+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.05.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.414.5+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Terry McLaurinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)13.015.9+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.218.7+12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)10.97.3−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)10.77.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15J.K. DobbinsRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Isaiah HodginsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)6.21.4−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Reggie GilliamRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)11.716.2+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)8.924.5+15.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Collin JohnsonWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.022.6+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Devin DuvernayWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 12 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse