Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W15Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)13.710.4−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.33.2+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)12.94.6−8.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.5-1.6−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.72.9+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Adam PrenticeRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.1-0.1−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.01.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.51.9−2.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.710.7−0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.145.6+35.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)18.744.3+25.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)3.53.3−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler BadieRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)3.41.1−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)18.231.1+12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.06.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)6.11.8−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)8.512.1+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Treylon BurksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)7.00.0−7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kenny PickettQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)7.51.3−6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyquan ThorntonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)4.36.7+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)14.716.4+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.10.0−4.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Evan HullRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)3.11.2−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nikko RemigioWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)19.229.5+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)21.518.3−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)7.38.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kayshon BoutteWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.54.0−4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)6.00.5−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.04.5+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jake BoboWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)4.70.4−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)7.66.4−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jalin HyattWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyler ScottWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)6.95.6−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)18.018.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)4.00.0−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Rashee RiceWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)16.512.1−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)25.327.9+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)14.615.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)18.523.4+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)12.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)11.58.8−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)4.22.5−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)2.95.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.38.0+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.30.4−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Blake WatsonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.30.0−4.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)17.620.5+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.62.1−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.72.3−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)7.02.0−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)11.517.1+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)10.45.5−4.9❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 13 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse