Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W15Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.74.6+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)11.14.0−7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)16.619.0+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Rome OdunzeWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)12.28.2−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.66.0+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.48.6+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)2.51.9−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.10.0−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Devin NealRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)12.010.2−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Kalel MullingsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.70.3−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)8.93.3−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)8.815.6+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jahdae WalkerWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jacoby JonesWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dalen CambreWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ricky White IIIWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)17.922.1+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.37.9+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15RJ HarveyRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)11.210.5−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.530.1+19.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.814.4+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)3.61.6−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tyrod TaylorQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)13.3-1.8−15.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)5.42.7−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Samaje PerineRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)5.54.8−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)8.711.5+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh ReynoldsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)6.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.91.1−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Allen LazardWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.10.0−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.32.1−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)9.71.9−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)18.421.1+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)5.820.6+14.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)16.911.1−5.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)16.022.3+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)8.728.1+19.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.30.0−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Noah FantTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)4.82.5−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)16.417.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Daniel JonesQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)17.00.8−16.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.81.9−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6)13.39.1−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)17.019.3+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)12.911.2−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Darrynton EvansRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)15.412.2−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyler JohnsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)12.718.1+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Jaret PattersonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Brandon SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Trey LanceQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3)13.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Bo MeltonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.811.5+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.37.1+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)1.53.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Brittain BrownRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)7.516.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14John Metchie IIIWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)6.97.4+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W14Hassan HaskinsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Romeo DoubsWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.80.0−12.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.212.5+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.12.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.624.9+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)7.14.9−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Dontayvion WicksWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)8.30.0−8.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Malik HeathWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)19.428.1+8.7✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 14 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse