Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W14 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | 3.1 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 18.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 1.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 1.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 4.2 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | 9.3 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 11.4 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 10.4 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 3.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 3.7 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 9.5 | 1.7 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kalel MullingsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 8.7 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Ricky White IIIWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 14.7 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 0.0 | −6.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.6) | 19.7 | 11.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyrod TaylorQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 21.3 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 13.4 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.2 | 21.8 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 5.6 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nick VannettTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 11.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 19.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 2.1 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 5.3 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamal AgnewWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | 1.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 22.0 | 29.4 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 2.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Josh ReynoldsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 17.2 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 4.7 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trent SherfieldWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 2.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 21.8 | 6.5 | −15.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 5.6 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 21.3 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 5.3 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David SillsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 9.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 3.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 10.0 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 15.5 | 35.2 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 11.3 | 8.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 6.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 12.6 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse