Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 4.5 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 16.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 2.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brandon SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 9.8 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | 6.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 21.7 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 5.1 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.8 | 12.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 15.6 | 14.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 4.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 4.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 5.7 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 2.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.5 | 13.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 11.2 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 1.5 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 6.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 3.6 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 13.5 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 7.9 | 13.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 1.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 3.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 8.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 18.7 | 0.6 | −18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 29.4 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 1.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 20.6 | 13.2 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 22.5 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 23.3 | +17.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacob KibodiRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 4.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 18.6 | 16.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 2.1 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse