Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 12.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 20.6 | 20.5 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 4.1 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 24.2 | +18.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 4.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 9.5 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 10.3 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat BryantWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 7.2 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 2.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 5.0 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 9.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson MeeksTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Arian SmithWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen RoyalsWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 11.3 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 8.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6) | 20.4 | 22.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 23.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.4 | 22.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 21.4 | 17.2 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 2.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 24.7 | 27.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 13.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 8.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 5.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 5.8 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 20.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 2.1 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 22.3 | 7.2 | −15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 3.5 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 19.0 | 8.1 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 2.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 5.8 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 8.1 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 25.0 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 6.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 16.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 11.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 16.1 | 1.9 | −14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 1.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 3.7 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 30.9 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse