Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 8.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 0.0 | −7.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 1.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 10.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 18.2 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 23.0 | 29.9 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 17.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 17.1 | 20.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 13.2 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 0.0 | −6.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 19.6 | 16.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 0.0 | −14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 2.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 3.6 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 5.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 7.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 6.1 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 13.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 2.9 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 4.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 1.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 15.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 3.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | 6.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 3.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 26.5 | +18.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 14.3 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 3.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 6.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 9.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 1.6 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 6.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 6.3 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 4.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | 3.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 22.2 | 16.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse