Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W12Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Darius CooperWR PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.42.7+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)6.46.6+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W12Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)7.514.9+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.82.8+0.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Kaleb JohnsonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)3.14.6+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.40.5−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)8.210.8+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.60.2−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Dominic LovettWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)4.811.1+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.24.5+3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Trevor EtienneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Robbie OuztsRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)6.41.7−4.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.01.5−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)13.87.9−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)16.59.9−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Andy DaltonQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)3.84.6+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.28.2−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)13.19.3−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)10.324.1+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)15.312.9−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)16.919.5+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)5.76.3+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)16.215.4−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.84.8−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)6.60.0−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)16.420.2+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)4.92.3−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11C.J. HamRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)12.78.5−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)24.435.1+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)11.524.7+13.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)13.411.1−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Kendrick BourneWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)8.40.0−8.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Patrick RicardRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)12.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)11.810.4−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)10.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.11.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.61.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kareem HuntRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)10.613.2+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.94.9+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W11River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Courtland SuttonWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)13.29.9−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.93.0+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)8.911.1+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.55.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nick ChubbRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)7.81.7−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.31.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Alec IngoldRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11T.J. HockensonTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.16.9−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh OliverTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.40.7−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Trayveon WilliamsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)1.40.9−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Trenton IrwinWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)4.90.0−4.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.515.0+10.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)0.9-0.2−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Alex BachmanWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.00.6−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Noah FantTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.16.6+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)6.73.3−3.4❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 19 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse