Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 16.2 | 20.7 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 15.0 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 15.7 | 6.8 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 9.4 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 17.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 9.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 4.9 | 9.5 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 18.9 | 3.3 | −15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 5.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 13.7 | 15.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 3.8 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 8.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 2.9 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 14.0 | 16.4 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 7.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 10.7 | 3.4 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | -0.3 | −19.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 6.4 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.0 | 14.5 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 18.5 | 20.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 8.2 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 9.6 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 10.5 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 2.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 8.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 8.3 | 4.8 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 7.4 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Owen WrightRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 21.2 | 30.3 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 0.0 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 14.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 7.2 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 17.2 | 18.7 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 5.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 9.2 | 6.1 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 4.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 13.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse