Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W11Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.93.7+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.134.0+28.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Marvin Mims Jr.WR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)6.90.2−6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Cedric TillmanWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.78.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)21.721.5−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)6.14.3−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.10.9−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.631.8+20.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.20.2−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)13.514.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Xavier LegetteWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)6.918.3+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jonathon BrooksRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.56.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.60.0−2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jamari ThrashWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)10.73.2−7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.311.2+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11British BrooksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.11.4+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)15.312.6−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.22.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Erick AllTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6)22.315.4−6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Javon BakerWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Troy FranklinWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.512.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W11Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.50.4−2.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)3.50.0−3.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)8.07.2−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Ja'Lynn PolkWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)15.34.3−11.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Ricky PearsallWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)10.61.0−9.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.32.9+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Trey BensonRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)5.72.8−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.833.0+21.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)6.57.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.613.2+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)6.12.3−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.74.8+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)11.86.1−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0)3.90.0−3.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.710.5+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.80.5−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)7.310.7+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)9.64.3−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Gage LarvadainWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)5.60.0−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)9.76.1−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.46.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Trevor EtienneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)1.20.2−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3)12.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6)9.713.1+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3)9.82.9−6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.52.2−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)2.72.9+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W11TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)17.132.3+15.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Isaiah BondWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)3.80.8−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.6)14.66.4−8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)9.49.4−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.74.4−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Allen RobinsonWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 21 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse