Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 9.4 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 18.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 9.9 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 10.2 | 1.9 | −8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 24.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 19.4 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 3.1 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 3.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 7.4 | 1.4 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 10.1 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 9.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 2.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 18.3 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 10.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 1.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 6.2 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 21.0 | 16.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 18.7 | 22.9 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.6) | 22.3 | 19.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 17.7 | 4.9 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 2.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 10.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 6.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 9.0 | 12.9 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 6.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 14.1 | 3.3 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 6.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 15.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | 1.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 13.7 | 10.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 14.6 | 3.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 13.7 | 14.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 5.7 | 1.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 20.6 | 14.7 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 12.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 19.8 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 22.6 | +10.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 19.4 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 1.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 6.3 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Davis MillsQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6) | 11.7 | 27.7 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse