Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 16.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 0.4 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 9.8 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 2.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 4.3 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 20.7 | 10.7 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 3.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 12.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 17.7 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 0.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 3.3 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 1.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 18.4 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 15.1 | 27.7 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 9.1 | 3.4 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 3.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 3.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 1.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 13.9 | 12.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.7 | 17.2 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 8.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 10.8 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 22.1 | 20.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 2.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 7.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 5.5 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 3.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 13.4 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 5.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 3.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 1.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 18.4 | 40.5 | +22.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 3.9 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 14.3 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 9.1 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | 8.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jase McClellanRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacob KibodiRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 5.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 11.5 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 0.5 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 6.8 | 0.3 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | 14.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 11.7 | 14.3 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 0.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse