Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 6.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 1.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3) | 7.2 | 2.9 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6) | 8.0 | 6.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 7.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris OladokunQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | -1.7 | −14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Stone SmarttTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6) | 16.2 | 9.4 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 1.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 6.0 | 5.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 29.2 | +20.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 3.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 0.7 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 16.7 | 5.2 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 2.0 | −0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny PickettQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.1 | -1.0 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 11.8 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik WillisQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.0 | 22.4 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 13.7 | 17.3 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 1.6 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.6) | 8.7 | 2.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Owen WrightRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3) | 25.2 | 7.3 | −17.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 21.6 | 14.4 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 2.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 20.9 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 5.4 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Clayton TuneQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | 3.7 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 19.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 19.7 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 5.9 | 15.3 | +9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 5.2 | 6.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 2.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 4.7 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 2.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 7.8 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.2 | 17.2 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | -0.4 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 1.8 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 7.1 | 9.6 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 29.1 | 26.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 16.5 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 18.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 1.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 17.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 5.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 10.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 15.4 | 27.9 | +12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 11.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 7.4 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 8.1 | 16.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 5.0 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse