Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Blake WatsonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3)19.210.5−8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)9.03.4−5.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Anthony GouldWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)9.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)22.515.7−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.925.4+22.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Adonai MitchellWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)8.60.0−8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)11.67.9−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)7.68.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.2)1.92.3+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W18J.J. McCarthyQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6)16.48.0−8.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)4.37.8+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)14.512.4−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)12.112.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)10.925.1+14.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tai FeltonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.86.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)6.44.3−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.51.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.22.5+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)10.85.9−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.40.0−3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)9.72.9−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jacoby JonesWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Coleman OwenWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.56.1+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brady CookQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8)7.49.1+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dalen CambreWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Beaux CollinsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)6.44.3−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Max BrosmerQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.6)13.40.3−13.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.61.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18CJ DippreTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.90.0−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Arian SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)1.50.2−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.40.0−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Drake DabneyTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.21.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Robbie OuztsRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Ricky White IIIWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)17.820.4+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.98.3+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)4.40.0−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18RJ HarveyRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)14.34.3−10.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.317.3+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3)15.17.8−7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)12.17.3−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Josh JohnsonQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)11.98.9−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Matthew StaffordQB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)20.012.8−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)12.79.1−3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.59.4+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.23.4+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)9.42.7−6.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)8.78.6−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6)12.67.1−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)14.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)20.422.1+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)5.98.9+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.72.5−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)14.445.6+31.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ezekiel ElliottRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.82.1−15.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)24.528.1+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)13.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)3.80.0−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Patrick RicardRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)11.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jamal AgnewWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 6 of 69 · 6,885 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse