Who to start · 2025-26
Adam Larsson vs Noah Cates
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Adam Larsson projects to 1.64 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.
Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.
This week Larsson has 2 games left; Cates has 1 left. We project Larsson for 3.3 ESPN points to Cates's 1.5.
Noah Cates has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Larsson's biggest edges: Hardest shot 98.4, Goals above expected +2.6, Ascension score 45.
Cates's biggest edges: Expected goals 53.9%, Sequence xG 53.6%, High-danger chances 52.6%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Adam Larsson
1.64
fantasy points per game
Noah Cates
1.33
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Adam Larsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Larsson | Cates |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.16 | 0.39 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.99 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Larsson vs Cates
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2022-23 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Larsson 0G 2A, 8 SOG · Cates 1G 2A, 9 SOG
Larsson blocked 0 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 1 of Larsson's.
On the ice against each other (Larsson's side)
8:37 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Larsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 7–6
- 53.8%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.1
- 60.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Larsson | Cates |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | SEA 4–1 PHI | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-10-20 | SEA 2–5 PHI | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2025-03-08 | SEA 4–1 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 4S |
| 2024-02-10 | SEA 2–3 PHI | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-02-16 | SEA 6–2 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-02-12 | SEA 4–3 PHI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Adam Larsson
3games (2 left)
3.3proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Thu, Oct 1 @ CGY
- Sat, Oct 3 @ EDM1.6 pts
- Sun, Oct 4 vs CGYB2B1.6 pts
Noah Cates
3games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2B
- Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 pts
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Adam Larsson or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Adam Larsson projects to 1.64 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Larsson had 25 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Adam Larsson or Noah Cates?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Noah Cates leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Larsson and Cates done against each other?
- In 6 games against each other in our data, Larsson's team went 4–2. Larsson had 2 points (0 goals) and Cates had 3 (1 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →