Who to start · 2025-26
Alexis Lafrenière vs Bryan Rust
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Alexis Lafrenière's 1.41.
Lafrenière had 57 points in 82 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games.
This week Lafrenière has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Rust has 1 left. We project Rust for 2.2 ESPN points to Lafrenière's 1.2.
Bryan Rust has the better number in 21 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Lafrenière's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 1.38, Scoring chances 54.3%, Hits 84.
Rust's biggest edges: Goals above expected +2.2, Hardest shot 88.4, Plus/minus 0.
- • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Alexis Lafrenière
1.64
fantasy points per game
Bryan Rust
2.28
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Bryan Rust has the edge.
| Points per game from | Lafrenière | Rust |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.26 | 0.49 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Lafrenière vs Rust
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2020-21 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Lafrenière 4G 6A, 34 SOG · Rust 8G 12A, 93 SOG
On the ice against each other (Lafrenière's side)
3:24 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Lafrenière's side
- Shot attempts
- 4–1
- 80.0%
- Expected goals
- 0.2–0.1
- 76.2%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Lafrenière | Rust |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | NYR 3–2 PIT | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2025-10-11 | NYR 6–1 PIT | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2025-02-07 | NYR 2–3 PIT | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 2A 0S |
| 2024-12-06 | NYR 4–2 PIT | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 5S |
| 2024-04-01 | NYR 2–5 PIT | 0G 0A 1S | 2G 0A 4S |
| 2024-03-16 | NYR 7–4 PIT | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2023-03-18 | NYR 6–0 PIT | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-03-16 | NYR 4–2 PIT | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-03-12 | NYR 2–3 PIT | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-20 | NYR 2–3 PIT | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 6S |
| 2022-05-15 · PO | NYR 4–3 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2022-05-13 · PO | NYR 5–3 PIT | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 3S |
Latest 12 of 29 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Alexis Lafrenière
4games (1 left)
1.2proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 @ BOSOpp allows 2nd-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Thu, Oct 1 vs TBLOpp allows 6th-most FP to LWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
- Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2BSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
- Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.2 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)
Bryan Rust
2games (1 left)
2.2proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 5th-most FP to RWLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL2.2 ptsOpp allows 9th-most FP to RWLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Alexis Lafrenière or Bryan Rust in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Bryan Rust projects to 2.28 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Alexis Lafrenière's 1.41. Lafrenière had 57 points in 82 games; Rust had 65 in 72 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Alexis Lafrenière or Bryan Rust?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Bryan Rust leads in 21 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Lafrenière and Rust done against each other?
- In 29 games against each other in our data, Lafrenière's team went 15–14. Lafrenière had 10 points (4 goals) and Rust had 20 (8 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →