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Who to start · 2025-26

Alexis Lafrenière vs Noah Cates

Alexis LafrenièreAlexis LafrenièreRangers · Left wingvsNoah CatesNoah CatesFlyers · Left wing

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alexis Lafrenière projects to 1.41 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33.

Lafrenière had 57 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games.

This week Lafrenière has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Cates has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Cates for 1.5 ESPN points to Lafrenière's 1.2.

Alexis Lafrenière has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Lafrenière's biggest edges: Offensive-zone time 45.8%, Net penalties drawn /60 +0.25, 20+ mph bursts 101.

Cates's biggest edges: Plus/minus +26, Turnover Ledger /60 +0.031, Faceoffs won 467.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 3 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Alexis Lafrenière

1.41

fantasy points per game

Noah Cates

1.33

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Alexis Lafrenière has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromLafrenièreCates
Goals (+2)0.490.39
Assists (+1)0.340.31
Power-play points (+0.5)0.080.05
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.01
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.190.16
Hits (+0.1)0.110.11
Blocks (+0.5)0.210.30

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Lafrenière vs Cates

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2021-22 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

LafrenièreCates
10Team record in 15 meetings5
9Points in those games5

Lafrenière 5G 4A, 29 SOG · Cates 1G 4A, 23 SOG

1Faceoffs against each other1

Lafrenière's offensive zone 1–1 · neutral 0–0 · Lafrenière's defensive zone 0–0 (2022-23 to 2024-25)

1Hits on each other2
1Shots blocked by the other0

Lafrenière blocked 1 of Cates's shots; Cates blocked 0 of Lafrenière's.

On the ice against each other (Lafrenière's side)

12:36 at 5-on-5 over 4 games, 2025-26, from Lafrenière's side

Shot attempts
10–10
50.0%
Expected goals
0.6–0.4
59.6%
Goals
2–0

Games against each other

Games between Alexis Lafrenière and Noah Cates
DateScoreLafrenièreCates
2026-03-09NYR 6–2 PHI1G 1A 4S0G 0A 0S
2026-02-26NYR 2–3 PHI1G 0A 1S0G 1A 5S
2026-01-17NYR 6–3 PHI0G 2A 2S0G 0A 0S
2025-12-20NYR 5–4 PHI0G 0A 0S0G 1A 1S
2025-04-09NYR 5–8 PHI0G 0A 0S0G 2A 1S
2025-01-23NYR 6–1 PHI0G 1A 5S0G 0A 2S
2024-11-29NYR 1–3 PHI0G 0A 1S0G 0A 3S
2024-04-11NYR 1–4 PHI0G 0A 0S1G 0A 2S
2024-03-26NYR 6–5 PHI2G 0A 3S0G 0A 1S
2024-02-24NYR 2–1 PHI1G 0A 4S0G 0A 3S
2023-11-24NYR 3–1 PHI0G 0A 0S0G 0A 0S
2023-03-01NYR 3–2 PHI0G 0A 2S0G 0A 1S

Latest 12 of 15 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

LafrenièreCates

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Alexis Lafrenière

4games (1 left)

1.2proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 @ BOS
    Opp allows 12th-fewest FP to LWLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
  • Thu, Oct 1 vs TBL
    Opp allows 6th-most FP to LWLikely vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (.912)
  • Fri, Oct 2 @ DETB2B
    Opp allows 13th-most FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs John Gibson (.901)
  • Sun, Oct 4 vs UTA1.2 pts
    Opp allows 3rd-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Karel Vejmelka (.897)

Noah Cates

3games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Wed, Sep 30 vs PIT
    Opp allows the fewest FP to LWLikely vs Arturs Silovs (.888)
  • Thu, Oct 1 @ NJDB2B
    Opp allows 9th-fewest FP to LWSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Jake Allen (.904)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs CAR1.5 pts
    Opp allows 9th-most FP to LWSchedule edge +9.0 win%Likely vs Pyotr Kochetkov (.899)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Alexis Lafrenière or Noah Cates in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Alexis Lafrenière projects to 1.41 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Noah Cates's 1.33. Lafrenière had 57 points in 82 games; Cates had 47 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Alexis Lafrenière or Noah Cates?
On 2025-26 numbers, Alexis Lafrenière leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Lafrenière and Cates done against each other?
In 15 games against each other in our data, Lafrenière's team went 10–5. Lafrenière had 9 points (5 goals) and Cates had 5 (1 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Lafrenière or Cates?
Against each other, Lafrenière has won 1 and Cates 1 of their 2 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →