Who to start · 2025-26
Auston Matthews vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88.
Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Matthews has 1 game left; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Hertl's 2.0.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 19 of the 36 stats both are ranked on.
Matthews's biggest edges: On-ice PDO 1016, Forecheck xG /60 0.31, Transition attempts /60 2.09.
Hertl's biggest edges: Corsi 56.2%, Fenwick 55.5%, Ascension score 61.
Head to head on the dot, Matthews leads Hertl 23–14.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Auston Matthews
2.31
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.
| Points per game from | Matthews | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.63 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Matthews vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Matthews 11G 1A, 47 SOG · Hertl 3G 3A, 21 SOG
Matthews's offensive zone 10–5 · neutral 7–5 · Matthews's defensive zone 6–4 (2017-18 to 2025-26)
Matthews blocked 1 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 0 of Matthews's.
On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)
5:59 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side
- Shot attempts
- 3–8
- 27.3%
- Expected goals
- 0.0–0.6
- 3.2%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Matthews | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | TOR 3–6 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2026-01-15 | TOR 5–6 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-03-05 | TOR 2–5 VGK | 1G 0A 6S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2024-01-09 | TOR 7–1 SJS | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-01-06 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-11-30 | TOR 3–1 SJS | 1G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-10-27 | TOR 3–4 SJS | 1G 0A 7S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2021-11-26 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 1G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-10-22 | TOR 3–5 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2019-10-25 | TOR 4–1 SJS | 1G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2018-11-28 | TOR 5–3 SJS | 2G 1A 5S | 1G 0A 4S |
| 2018-01-04 | TOR 3–2 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Auston Matthews
3games (1 left)
2.7proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs MTLOpp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2BOpp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 ptsvs Linus Ullmark (.891)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Auston Matthews or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tomas Hertl's 1.88. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Auston Matthews or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 19 of 36 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Matthews and Hertl done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 7–6. Matthews had 12 points (11 goals) and Hertl had 6 (3 goals).
- Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or Hertl?
- Against each other, Matthews has won 23 and Hertl 14 of their 37 head-to-head draws.
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →