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Who to start · 2025-26

Auston Matthews vs Tyler Toffoli

Auston MatthewsAuston MatthewsMaple Leafs · CentrevsTyler ToffoliTyler ToffoliSharks · Centre

Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35.

Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games.

This week Matthews has 1 game left; Toffoli has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Matthews for 2.7 ESPN points to Toffoli's 1.5.

Auston Matthews has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.

Matthews's biggest edges: Faceoffs won 580, Blocked shots 81, Ice time per game 20:48.

Toffoli's biggest edges: Luck Meter +14, Offensive-zone time 45.2%, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.004.

  • • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
  • • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 1 SOG.

Fantasy value: your scoring

Auston Matthews

2.31

fantasy points per game

Tyler Toffoli

1.35

fantasy points per game

Under ESPN default points, Auston Matthews has the edge.

Per-stat breakdown under ESPN default points
Points per game fromMatthewsToffoli
Goals (+2)0.790.45
Assists (+1)0.380.36
Power-play points (+0.5)0.090.09
Shorthanded points (+0.5)0.000.00
Shots on goal (+0.1)0.360.21
Hits (+0.1)0.070.06
Blocks (+0.5)0.630.18

Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.

Head-to-head: Matthews vs Toffoli

Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.

MatthewsToffoli
16Team record in 27 meetings11
34Points in those games18

Matthews 14G 20A, 133 SOG · Toffoli 10G 8A, 70 SOG

1Faceoffs against each other0

Matthews's offensive zone 0–0 · neutral 0–0 · Matthews's defensive zone 1–0 (2020-21)

1Hits on each other0
4Shots blocked by the other1

Matthews blocked 4 of Toffoli's shots; Toffoli blocked 1 of Matthews's.

1Penalties drawn off the other0

On the ice against each other (Matthews's side)

1:06 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Matthews's side

Shot attempts
0–0
—
Expected goals
0.0–0.0
—
Goals
0–0

Games against each other

Games between Auston Matthews and Tyler Toffoli
DateScoreMatthewsToffoli
2025-12-11TOR 2–3 SJS1G 0A 6S0G 0A 3S
2025-03-27TOR 5–6 SJS1G 1A 4S2G 1A 7S
2025-03-03TOR 2–3 SJS0G 1A 6S1G 0A 2S
2023-03-02TOR 2–1 CGY0G 1A 8S0G 0A 2S
2022-12-10TOR 5–4 CGY1G 2A 8S0G 0A 1S
2021-05-31 · POTOR 1–3 MTL0G 1A 3S1G 0A 2S
2021-05-29 · POTOR 2–3 MTL0G 0A 7S1G 1A 5S
2021-05-27 · POTOR 3–4 MTL0G 1A 2S0G 0A 2S
2021-05-25 · POTOR 4–0 MTL0G 0A 5S0G 0A 2S
2021-05-24 · POTOR 2–1 MTL0G 0A 6S0G 0A 2S
2021-05-22 · POTOR 5–1 MTL1G 2A 4S0G 1A 2S
2021-05-20 · POTOR 1–2 MTL0G 0A 8S0G 1A 2S

Latest 12 of 27 meetings.

Every stat, side by side

Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.

MatthewsToffoli

Fantasy box score

Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)

Transition, turnovers & faceoffs

Usage

Special teams & discipline

Luck & trend

NHL EDGE tracking

This week's schedule

Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.

Auston Matthews

3games (1 left)

2.7proj. ESPN pts

  • Tue, Sep 29 vs MTL
    Opp allows 14th-most FP to CLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
  • Wed, Sep 30 vs NYIB2B
    Opp allows 15th-most FP to CSchedule edge −9.3 win%Likely vs Ilya Sorokin (.906)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs OTT2.7 pts
    vs Linus Ullmark (.891)

Tyler Toffoli

2games (1 left)

1.5proj. ESPN pts

  • Thu, Oct 1 vs FLA
    Opp allows 10th-fewest FP to CLikely vs Akira Schmid (.892)
  • Sat, Oct 3 vs LAK1.5 pts
    Opp allows the most FP to CSchedule edge +3.3 win%Likely vs Anton Forsberg (.910)

Similar matchups

FAQ

Should I start Auston Matthews or Tyler Toffoli in fantasy hockey?
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Auston Matthews projects to 2.31 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Tyler Toffoli's 1.35. Matthews had 53 points in 60 games; Toffoli had 49 in 79 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
Who is better, Auston Matthews or Tyler Toffoli?
On 2025-26 numbers, Auston Matthews leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
How have Matthews and Toffoli done against each other?
In 27 games against each other in our data, Matthews's team went 16–11. Matthews had 34 points (14 goals) and Toffoli had 18 (10 goals).
Who wins more faceoffs, Matthews or Toffoli?
Against each other, Matthews has won 1 and Toffoli 0 of their 1 head-to-head draws.

2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →