Who to start · 2025-26
Brent Burns vs Brock Nelson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38.
Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Nelson had 65 in 81 games.
This week Burns has 1 game left; Nelson has 1 left. We project Nelson for 2.0 ESPN points to Burns's 1.4.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 27 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Burns's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 0.90, Luck Meter +60, Goals above expected +4.8.
Nelson's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.000, Ice-time share 32.3%, Ice time per game 19:39.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brent Burns
1.38
fantasy points per game
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Burns | Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.27 | 0.89 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.55 | 0.38 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Burns vs Nelson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2026-27: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Burns 3G 13A, 101 SOG · Nelson 12G 9A, 71 SOG
Burns blocked 2 of Nelson's shots; Nelson blocked 2 of Burns's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice together
495:11 at 5-on-5 over 94 games, 2025-26 to 2026-27
- Shot attempts
- 616–475
- 56.5%
- Expected goals
- 26.6–19.5
- 57.7%
- Goals
- 28–19
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Burns | Nelson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-25 | CAR 2–3 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-12-17 | CAR 4–0 NYI | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-12-07 | CAR 3–4 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-30 · PO | CAR 6–3 NYI | 0G 1A 1S | 1G 1A 1S |
| 2024-04-27 · PO | CAR 2–3 NYI | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-04-25 · PO | CAR 3–2 NYI | 1G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2024-04-22 · PO | CAR 5–3 NYI | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2024-04-20 · PO | CAR 3–1 NYI | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-19 | CAR 4–1 NYI | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-12-23 | CAR 4–5 NYI | 0G 0A 4S | 1G 1A 4S |
| 2023-11-30 | CAR 4–5 NYI | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2023-11-04 | CAR 4–3 NYI | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 4S |
Latest 12 of 29 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brent Burns
2games (1 left)
1.4proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.4 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts (season rate)
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAK
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL2.0 ptsSchedule edge +9.3 win%
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brent Burns or Brock Nelson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38. Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Nelson had 65 in 81 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brent Burns or Brock Nelson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 27 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Burns and Nelson done against each other?
- In 29 games against each other in our data, Burns's team went 17–12. Burns had 16 points (3 goals) and Nelson had 21 (12 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →