Who to start · 2025-26
Brent Burns vs Erik Karlsson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38.
Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games.
This week Burns has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Karlsson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Karlsson for 1.3 ESPN points to Burns's 0.9.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 16 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Burns's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 0.90, Blocked shots 91, Plus/minus +33.
Karlsson's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 153, Offensive-zone start % 52.8%, Ice-time share 38.7%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brent Burns
1.38
fantasy points per game
Erik Karlsson
1.96
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Burns | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.33 | 0.70 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Burns vs Karlsson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Burns 3G 5A, 43 SOG · Karlsson 2G 8A, 32 SOG
Burns blocked 1 of Karlsson's shots; Karlsson blocked 1 of Burns's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Burns's side)
6:51 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Burns's side
- Shot attempts
- 8–4
- 66.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.1
- 78.5%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Burns | Karlsson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | COL 6–2 PIT | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-03-16 | COL 2–7 PIT | 1G 0A 5S | 1G 2A 4S |
| 2025-01-05 | CAR 4–3 PIT | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2024-11-07 | CAR 5–1 PIT | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-10-18 | CAR 4–1 PIT | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2024-03-26 | CAR 1–4 PIT | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-01-13 | CAR 3–2 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 1A 6S |
| 2023-12-21 | CAR 1–2 PIT | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-11-18 | CAR 4–2 PIT | 1G 1A 1S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-01-27 | CAR 5–4 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2022-10-14 | CAR 2–1 SJS | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2018-01-05 | SJS 5–6 OTT | 1G 1A 6S | 0G 2A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brent Burns
2games (1 left)
0.9proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 3rd-most FP to DLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL0.9 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to Dvs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brent Burns or Erik Karlsson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38. Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Karlsson had 66 in 75 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brent Burns or Erik Karlsson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 16 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Burns and Karlsson done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Burns's team went 9–4. Burns had 8 points (3 goals) and Karlsson had 10 (2 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →