Who to start · 2025-26
Erik Karlsson vs Gabriel Vilardi
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Gabriel Vilardi's 1.77.
Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Vilardi had 69 in 82 games.
This week Karlsson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Vilardi has 2 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Vilardi for 2.9 ESPN points to Karlsson's 1.3.
Erik Karlsson has the better number in 22 of the 33 stats both are ranked on.
Karlsson's biggest edges: 20+ mph bursts 153, Top skating speed 23.7, Hardest shot 96.6.
Vilardi's biggest edges: Blocked shots 35, Turnover Ledger /60 −0.014, Penalty minutes 24.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 1 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Erik Karlsson
1.94
fantasy points per game
Gabriel Vilardi
1.77
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Erik Karlsson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Karlsson | Vilardi |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.68 | 0.48 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.43 | 0.21 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Karlsson vs Vilardi
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2020-21 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Karlsson 2G 7A, 38 SOG · Vilardi 3G 4A, 17 SOG
On the ice against each other (Karlsson's side)
11:41 at 5-on-5 over 2 games, 2025-26, from Karlsson's side
- Shot attempts
- 11–16
- 40.7%
- Expected goals
- 0.4–0.7
- 37.5%
- Goals
- 1–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Karlsson | Vilardi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | PIT 5–4 WPG | 2G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2025-11-01 | PIT 2–5 WPG | 0G 1A 3S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2024-11-22 | PIT 1–4 WPG | 0G 0A 1S | 1G 0A 1S |
| 2024-10-20 | PIT 3–6 WPG | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2024-02-10 | PIT 1–2 WPG | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-02-06 | PIT 3–0 WPG | 0G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-01-11 | SJS 3–4 LAK | 0G 1A 4S | 1G 0A 2S |
| 2022-12-17 | SJS 2–3 LAK | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2022-11-25 | SJS 2–5 LAK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-03-17 | SJS 0–3 LAK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-04-10 | SJS 2–4 LAK | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2021-04-03 | SJS 3–2 LAK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 17 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Erik Karlsson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 @ PHIOpp allows 2nd-most FP to DLikely vs Dan Vladar (.906)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs MTL1.3 ptsOpp allows 7th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jakub Dobes (.901)
Gabriel Vilardi
2games
2.9proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOS1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge −4.0 win%vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET1.6 ptsLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Erik Karlsson or Gabriel Vilardi in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Erik Karlsson projects to 1.96 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Gabriel Vilardi's 1.77. Karlsson had 66 points in 75 games; Vilardi had 69 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Erik Karlsson or Gabriel Vilardi?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Erik Karlsson leads in 22 of 33 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Karlsson and Vilardi done against each other?
- In 17 games against each other in our data, Karlsson's team went 7–10. Karlsson had 9 points (2 goals) and Vilardi had 7 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →