Who to start · 2025-26
Brent Burns vs Tomas Hertl
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38.
Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games.
This week Burns has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Hertl has 1 left with 1 soft matchup. We project Hertl for 2.0 ESPN points to Burns's 0.9.
Tomas Hertl has the better number in 21 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Burns's biggest edges: Goals above expected +4.8, Luck Meter +60, Plus/minus +33.
Hertl's biggest edges: Hits 114, Ascension score 61, Offensive-zone start % 61.8%.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 1 A, 0 PPP, 0 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 2 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 1 PPP, 9 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brent Burns
1.38
fantasy points per game
Tomas Hertl
1.88
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Tomas Hertl has the edge.
| Points per game from | Burns | Hertl |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.27 | 0.63 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.17 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Burns vs Hertl
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Burns 1G 3A, 25 SOG · Hertl 3G 7A, 26 SOG
Burns blocked 2 of Hertl's shots; Hertl blocked 3 of Burns's.
Goals each scored with the other picking up an assist (as teammates).
On the ice against each other (Burns's side)
32:52 at 5-on-5 over 7 games, 2025-26, from Burns's side
- Shot attempts
- 34–34
- 50.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.5–1.6
- 48.6%
- Goals
- 1–3
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Burns | Hertl |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 · PO | COL 1–2 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2026-05-24 · PO | COL 3–5 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 3S |
| 2026-05-22 · PO | COL 1–3 VGK | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2026-05-20 · PO | COL 2–4 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2026-04-11 | COL 2–3 VGK | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2025-12-27 | COL 6–5 VGK | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 1S |
| 2025-10-31 | COL 4–2 VGK | 1G 0A 2S | 1G 1A 2S |
| 2025-01-17 | CAR 3–2 VGK | 0G 0A 3S | 1G 0A 3S |
| 2024-11-11 | CAR 5–2 VGK | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-10-27 | CAR 3–0 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-10-17 | CAR 6–3 SJS | 0G 1A 3S | 0G 2A 1S |
| 2023-01-27 | CAR 5–4 SJS | 0G 1A 0S | 0G 0A 2S |
Latest 12 of 13 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brent Burns
2games (1 left)
0.9proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows 3rd-most FP to DLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL0.9 ptsOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Tomas Hertl
3games (1 left)
2.0proj. ESPN pts
- Tue, Sep 29 vs CHIOpp allows 8th-most FP to CLikely vs Spencer Knight (.902)
- Fri, Oct 2 vs ANAOpp allows 9th-most FP to CLikely vs Lukas Dostal (.888)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ VAN2.0 ptsOpp allows 6th-most FP to CSchedule edge +9.3 win%Likely vs Kevin Lankinen (.875)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brent Burns or Tomas Hertl in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Tomas Hertl projects to 1.88 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Brent Burns's 1.38. Burns had 35 points in 82 games; Hertl had 58 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brent Burns or Tomas Hertl?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Tomas Hertl leads in 21 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Burns and Hertl done against each other?
- In 13 games against each other in our data, Burns's team went 8–5. Burns had 4 points (1 goals) and Hertl had 10 (3 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →