Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs John Carlson
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left with 1 tough matchup; Carlson has 1 left with 1 tough matchup. We project Carlson for 1.6 ESPN points to Nelson's 1.3.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 25 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Turnover Ledger /60 +0.000, 20+ mph bursts 150, Blocked shots 65.
Carlson's biggest edges: Transition attempts /60 0.96, Luck Meter +52, Hardest shot 99.8.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 0 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 4 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
John Carlson
2.10
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Carlson |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.37 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.76 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Carlson
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2017-18 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 10G 8A, 68 SOG · Carlson 6G 15A, 69 SOG
Nelson blocked 1 of Carlson's shots; Carlson blocked 1 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
7:54 at 5-on-5 over 1 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 20–5
- 80.0%
- Expected goals
- 1.0–0.2
- 80.9%
- Goals
- 0–0
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Carlson |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | COL 5–2 WSH | 0G 1A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2024-11-29 | NYI 4–5 WSH | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 1A 4S |
| 2023-12-29 | NYI 5–1 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-12-20 | NYI 2–3 WSH | 0G 0A 4S | 0G 1A 3S |
| 2023-11-11 | NYI 1–4 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 1A 2S |
| 2023-11-02 | NYI 3–0 WSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2023-04-10 | NYI 2–5 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 1A 0S |
| 2023-03-29 | NYI 2–1 WSH | 0G 1A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-03-15 | NYI 3–4 WSH | 1G 1A 2S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-01-15 | NYI 0–2 WSH | 0G 0A 2S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2022-04-28 | NYI 5–1 WSH | 1G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2021-04-24 | NYI 3–6 WSH | 0G 0A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
Latest 12 of 30 meetings.
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.3proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.3 ptsOpp allows 3rd-fewest FP to CSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
John Carlson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Thu, Oct 1 @ NYROpp allows 9th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Igor Shesterkin (.912)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs WSH1.6 ptsOpp allows 5th-fewest FP to DSchedule edge +13.4 win%vs Charlie Lindgren (.879)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or John Carlson in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to John Carlson's 2.10. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Carlson had 60 in 71 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or John Carlson?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 25 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Carlson done against each other?
- In 30 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 11–19. Nelson had 18 points (10 goals) and Carlson had 21 (6 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →