Who to start · 2025-26
Brock Nelson vs Mario Ferraro
Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mario Ferraro's 1.71.
Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Ferraro had 23 in 82 games.
This week Nelson has 1 game left; Ferraro has 1 left. We project Nelson for 1.6 ESPN points to Ferraro's 1.5.
Brock Nelson has the better number in 26 of the 34 stats both are ranked on.
Nelson's biggest edges: Corsi 57.5%, Fenwick 57.3%, Offensive-zone time 44.0%.
Ferraro's biggest edges: Luck Meter +65, Hits 137, Goals above expected +3.3.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 2 A, 3 PPP, 1 SOG.
- • 2026-27 so far: 1 GP, 1 G, 0 A, 0 PPP, 3 SOG.
Fantasy value: your scoring
Brock Nelson
2.23
fantasy points per game
Mario Ferraro
1.71
fantasy points per game
Under ESPN default points, Brock Nelson has the edge.
| Points per game from | Nelson | Ferraro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals (+2) | 0.89 | 0.29 |
| Assists (+1) | 0.50 | 0.18 |
| Power-play points (+0.5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Shorthanded points (+0.5) | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal (+0.1) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| Hits (+0.1) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Blocks (+0.5) | 0.38 | 0.95 |
Per-game rates from the selected sample; blended mixes last season with this season, weighting this season more as games are played. Categories are scored as z-scores against qualified players at the same position. Your custom weights are saved in this browser only.
Head-to-head: Nelson vs Ferraro
Every event between them in NHL play-by-play, 2019-20 to 2025-26: games against each other, faceoffs, shots on goal, hits and penalties. Regular season and playoffs.
Nelson 4G 8A, 34 SOG · Ferraro 0G 1A, 7 SOG
Nelson blocked 0 of Ferraro's shots; Ferraro blocked 2 of Nelson's.
On the ice against each other (Nelson's side)
15:01 at 5-on-5 over 3 games, 2025-26, from Nelson's side
- Shot attempts
- 22–7
- 75.9%
- Expected goals
- 0.8–0.3
- 73.7%
- Goals
- 0–1
Games against each other
| Date | Score | Nelson | Ferraro |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | COL 4–2 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-26 | COL 6–0 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-11-01 | COL 2–3 SJS | 0G 0A 0S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2025-01-18 | NYI 4–1 SJS | 1G 1A 4S | 0G 0A 2S |
| 2024-03-07 | NYI 7–2 SJS | 0G 3A 3S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2023-12-05 | NYI 4–5 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 3S |
| 2023-03-18 | NYI 4–1 SJS | 0G 0A 3S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2022-10-18 | NYI 5–2 SJS | 0G 2A 2S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2022-02-24 | NYI 3–4 SJS | 1G 0A 5S | 0G 0A 0S |
| 2020-02-23 | NYI 4–1 SJS | 0G 2A 1S | 0G 0A 1S |
| 2019-11-23 | NYI 1–2 SJS | 0G 0A 6S | 0G 1A 0S |
Every stat, side by side
Season values; bars are percentiles at each player's position (longer is better). Click a stat for its explainer.
Fantasy box score
Possession & shot quality (5-on-5 on-ice)
Transition, turnovers & faceoffs
Usage
Special teams & discipline
This week's schedule
Sep 28 to Oct 4. More games usually wins a weekly start/sit. Chips show how many fantasy points the opponent allows to the player's position (soft or tough), the Schedule Edge from rest and travel, and the likely opposing goalie with his save percentage. Projections use ESPN default points for the games left.
Brock Nelson
2games (1 left)
1.6proj. ESPN pts
- Wed, Sep 30 vs LAKOpp allows the most FP to CLikely vs Darcy Kuemper (.891)
- Sat, Oct 3 vs STL1.6 ptsSchedule edge +10.1 win%vs Jordan Binnington (.873)
Mario Ferraro
2games (1 left)
1.5proj. ESPN pts
- Fri, Oct 2 vs BOSOpp allows 4th-fewest FP to DLikely vs Jeremy Swayman (.908)
- Sun, Oct 4 @ DET1.5 ptsLikely vs John Gibson (.901)
Similar matchups
FAQ
- Should I start Brock Nelson or Mario Ferraro in fantasy hockey?
- Blending 2025-26 with 2026-27 so far, Brock Nelson projects to 2.23 fantasy points per game under ESPN default scoring to Mario Ferraro's 1.71. Nelson had 65 points in 81 games; Ferraro had 23 in 82 games. Check this week's games and your league's scoring in the fantasy panel above, since more games usually decide a weekly start.
- Who is better, Brock Nelson or Mario Ferraro?
- On 2025-26 numbers, Brock Nelson leads in 26 of 34 stats where both qualify, from scoring and power-play production to on-ice shot share and NHL EDGE tracking.
- How have Nelson and Ferraro done against each other?
- In 11 games against each other in our data, Nelson's team went 7–4. Nelson had 12 points (4 goals) and Ferraro had 1 (0 goals).
2025-26 regular season from NHL play-by-play, shift charts and NHL EDGE, processed by Edgehalla. Head-to-head covers every loaded season (play-by-play from 2019-20; on-ice matchups from 2025-26).Compare other players →